Category: Uncategorized

Report on ex-post analysis

As part of the ongoing revision of the Gothenburg Protocol, The Working Group on Effects has produced a modelling report on expected effects given proposed scenarios for future emissions. The report (with annex) was presented to the Executive Body of the Air Convention in December 2025.

The report can be found here.

The annex can be found here.

Key messages from the ICP Waters part of the report:

− Emission reduction given current legislation is predicted to lead to considerable improvements in water chemistry in acidic lakes across Europe by 2040.

− Additional improvement by the other emission reduction scenarios is limited, given the relatively small additional reduction in sulfur and nitrogen deposition and that sulfur deposition is already at a low level with the current legislation scenario.

− Reduced surface water acidification will lead to increased diversity of macroinvertebrates and improved living conditions for sensitive fish species. It will also reduce the need for liming as a mitigation measure.

− The highest benefits from emission reductions are expected in the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, Central Europe, southern Scandinavia and the southern Alps.